Two observations. First, I have no idea how I would behave as a hostage in Iran, and while I do think I might be more circumspect in reporting the experience afterwards, I rather doubt I’d have covered myself in glory, either. Thus, I’ll leave criticism of these sailors to men and women who are, themselves, made of sterner stuff or at least believe themselves to be.
Second, I disagree with Harnden’s contention that “[s]trategically, Iran has been emboldened.... and learnt that illegal actions against the West can yield dividends.” That lesson, tragically enough, Iran learned first and foremost as a result of then President Jimmy Carter’s disastrous handling of the Iran Hostage Crisis of 1979. As between the West and Iran, the latter has had little reason in the intervening three decades to think otherwise.
Harnden continues as follows:
There is now a real danger that a similar escapade will be attempted against American forces. That is very likely to result in a bloodbath - American troops would not surrender and confess in this way - and could be the incident that ratchets the temperature up towards war.
I both hope and, in fact, do believe that Harnden is correct in his assessment of American troops. History by damned, Iran would be foolish to believe otherwise. Unfortunately, there are altogether too many fools these days on both sides of that potential confrontation and too many, for that matter, on both sides of the U.S. political spectrum, for me to be at all sanguine about the foreseeable future.
3 comments:
If Iran was "emboldened" by this incident, then we'd have to conclude that North Korea was equally emboldened by the almost exactly parallel incident of the U.S.S. Pueblo in 1968.
Oh, yes, and needless to say, American troops (well, sailors) *did* "surrender and confess in this way." Their government, also, "confessed" and "apologized" for violating North Korean waters. But that was at a time when we had a president who, having gotten us into a godawful military mess, probably wasn't looking for more wars to get involved in. Query whether our current president wants to continue following LBJ's lead that far.
Query whether our current president wants to continue following LBJ's lead that far.
Yes, that's the critical point. And, as I suggested in my earlier Pelosi post, having various mixed signals being sent by other elected officials tends only to heighten the problem. As with Putin's comments about firing Dan Rather, I doubt the Iranians have clue one about how things actually work here.
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